Corporate finance
How a firm decides what to invest in, how to pay for it and what to hand back to its owners: the goal of the firm, time value of money, capital budgeting (NPV, IRR and their traps), incremental cash flows, risk and the cost of capital (CAPM, beta, WACC), capital structure (Modigliani–Miller and what breaks it), financing instruments, payout, working capital, planning, hedging and M&A. Statement mechanics, free cash flow definitions and ratios live in financial statements and accounting; pricing a whole business is valuation; cap tables and SAFEs are in startup finance. Portfolio theory basics are in investing; probability tools in probability and risk.
The goal of the firm
The textbook objective (Brealey, Myers, Allen and Edmans; Koller et al.) is to maximize the long-run value of the firm to its owners, which in practice means taking every project whose expected cash flows are worth more than they cost, at a discount rate that reflects their risk. Value, not accounting profit, market share or EPS.
| Objective | Problem with it |
|---|---|
| maximize profit | which year's? ignores timing, risk and the capital used to earn it |
| maximize EPS | can be raised by value-destroying buybacks, leverage or acquisitions (see M&A) |
| maximize revenue or share | growth that earns less than the cost of capital destroys value |
| maximize share price today | invites short-termism if markets are misinformed; right only with long-run, well-informed prices |
| maximize long-run value | the standard answer; needs judgment on horizon and on who bears risk |
Shareholder vs stakeholder. Milton Friedman's essay "A Friedman Doctrine: The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits" (New York Times Magazine, 13 September 1970) argued that "there is one and only one social responsibility of business—to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud." On 19 August 2019 the Business Roundtable issued a new Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation, signed by 181 CEOs, committing to deliver value to customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders, replacing its 1997 language that put shareholders first.
- The two positions overlap more than the rhetoric suggests: over a long horizon, mistreating customers or staff usually destroys shareholder value too (Koller et al. make this argument).
- The real conflicts are trade-offs that cost owners money (e.g. keeping an unprofitable plant open). "Serve all stakeholders" gives no rule for resolving them, which is the standard criticism: a manager accountable to everyone is accountable to no one.
- Working rule for this sheet: maximize long-run value subject to law, contracts and the constraints the firm chooses to adopt; price externalities explicitly rather than hiding them in a vague mission.
The big decisions
| Decision | Question | Main tools | Sections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment (capital budgeting) | which real assets should we buy? | NPV, IRR, scenarios, real options | capital budgeting, cash flows |
| Financing | debt or equity, and which instrument? | cost of capital, MM, trade-off, pecking order | WACC, capital structure |
| Payout | what do we return, and how? | dividends vs buybacks | payout policy |
| Working capital | how much cash is tied up running the business? | CCC, DSO/DIO/DPO | working capital |
Separation principle: in a frictionless world the investment decision is made on NPV alone and the financing decision does not change it. Most of corporate finance is about the frictions (taxes, distress, information, agency) that make the financing side matter at the margin.
Time value of money for firms
Basics (FV, PV, rule of 72, real vs nominal) are in money basics. The firm toolkit adds perpetuities and the discipline of matching cash flows to rates.
| Stream | Formula | Example ( = 8%) |
|---|---|---|
| single sum | — | |
| annuity, periods | $100 a year for 10 years → $671.01 | |
| perpetuity | $100 a year forever → $1,250 | |
| growing perpetuity | , | $100 next year, growing 3% → $2,000 |
| growing annuity | same, 10 years only → $755.01 | |
| net present value | is usually negative |
APR vs EAR. A quoted annual percentage rate compounded times a year has effective annual rate ; continuous compounding gives . At 12% APR: monthly 12.68%, daily 12.75%, continuous 12.75%. Always compare effective rates, and match the period of the rate to the period of the cash flow.
Consistency rules that catch most errors:
- Nominal cash flows with a nominal rate, real with real; never mix.
- After-tax cash flows with after-tax rates.
- Cash flows to the whole firm (FCFF) with WACC; cash flows to equity (FCFE) with the cost of equity.
- The formula needs next period's cash flow, not this period's.
Capital budgeting
Net present value is the value a project adds today: the present value of its incremental cash flows at the opportunity cost of capital (the return investors could earn on a traded asset of the same risk), minus the investment. Accept if NPV > 0. It is the only common rule that is consistent with value maximization in all cases, because NPVs add up: .
| Rule | Definition | Accept if | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| NPV | > 0 | the benchmark | |
| IRR | rate where NPV = 0 | IRR > | agrees with NPV only for single, conventional, independent projects |
| MIRR | IRR with inflows reinvested at | MIRR > | fixes the multiple-IRR problem, still ranks badly on scale |
| payback | years until cumulative cash flow ≥ 0 | ≤ cut-off | ignores time value and everything after the cut-off |
| discounted payback | payback on discounted flows | ≤ cut-off | better, still ignores later flows |
| profitability index | > 1 | useful only for ranking under a hard capital constraint | |
| accounting rate of return | average profit / average book investment | > target | uses accounting profit, not cash; no time value; avoid |
In Graham and Harvey's 2001 survey of 392 US CFOs, about three-quarters said they always or almost always use NPV and IRR, and a majority also used payback. IRR is popular because a percentage is easy to communicate; the decision should still rest on NPV.
Worked example
Project A costs $1,000 and returns $300, $400, $500, $200 over four years; the cost of capital is 10%.
Year 0 1 2 3 4
Cash flow -1,000 300 400 500 200
Cumulative -1,000 -700 -300 200 400
Discount factor 1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683
PV -1,000 272.7 330.6 375.7 136.6
Cumulative PV -1,000 -727.3 -396.7 -21.0 115.6| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| NPV at 10% | $115.57 (accept) |
| IRR | 15.32% |
| MIRR (reinvest at 10%) | 13.05% |
| payback | 2 + 300/500 = 2.6 years |
| discounted payback | 3 + 21.0/136.6 = 3.15 years |
| profitability index | 1,115.6 / 1,000 = 1.12 |
IRR pitfalls
IRR is the root of a polynomial, not a measure of value. Four ways it misleads:
| Pitfall | Example (cost of capital 10%) | IRR says | NPV says |
|---|---|---|---|
| multiple IRRs (sign changes twice) | −1,600, +10,000, −10,000 | 25% and 400% | −$773.55: reject |
| lending vs borrowing | +1,000, −1,200 | 20% ("great") | −$90.91: you are borrowing at 20% |
| scale (mutually exclusive) | S: −100, +150 · L: −1,000, +1,300 | S (50% vs 30%) | L ($181.82 vs $36.36) |
| timing (mutually exclusive) | Q: −1,000, +1,200 in yr 1 · R: −1,000, +1,650 in yr 3 | Q (20.0% vs 18.2%) | R ($239.67 vs $90.91) |
- Multiple IRRs: Descartes' rule of signs allows one IRR per sign change. Projects with clean-up costs at the end (mines, nuclear plants) often have two. Use NPV, or MIRR.
- Scale: a high return on a small investment adds less value than a lower return on a large one. The fix
if you must use IRR: compute the IRR of the incremental cash flows (L − S = −900, +1,150), which is 27.8%
10%, so take L.
- Timing: the NPV profiles cross at 17.26%. Below that rate R is worth more; above it Q is. IRR implicitly assumes reinvestment at the IRR itself; NPV assumes reinvestment at the cost of capital, which is the right opportunity cost.
- Term structure: IRR compares to a single hurdle; if rates differ by maturity, NPV can discount each year at its own rate and IRR cannot.
| Rate | NPV of Q | NPV of R |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 142.9 | 425.3 |
| 10% | 90.9 | 239.7 |
| 15% | 43.5 | 84.9 |
| 20% | 0.0 | −45.1 |
Capital rationing. With a hard budget, rank by profitability index and fill the budget, or solve it as an integer program (maximize subject to ). Most rationing is soft (a management-imposed limit); if positive-NPV projects are being turned away, the constraint itself is costing money.
Incremental cash flows
Discount cash, not profit, and only cash that changes because of the decision: firm cash flow with the project minus firm cash flow without it.
| Item | Rule | Example |
|---|---|---|
| sunk costs | ignore; already spent whatever you decide | last year's $50k market study |
| opportunity costs | include the value of the best alternative use | owned warehouse you could rent out |
| side effects | include cannibalisation and spillovers | new model steals sales from old one |
| allocated overhead | include only if total overhead actually rises | head-office cost reallocated → exclude |
| net working capital | outflow when inventory and receivables build, inflow when recovered | NWC at 12% of revenue |
| taxes | use marginal tax rate on incremental profit | 21% US federal rate |
| depreciation | not cash, but its tax shield is | $200k depreciation saves $42k tax |
| financing costs | exclude interest; it is in the discount rate (WACC) | counting both double-counts |
| salvage | after-tax: price − tax on (price − book value) | sell for $150k at book 0 → $118.5k |
| inflation | be consistent: nominal flows at nominal rate | escalate prices and costs explicitly |
Operating cash flow three equivalent ways: (the last only with no debt). Free cash flow for a project: .
US tax notes (verify before use): the federal corporate rate is 21% (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017); the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act restored 100% bonus depreciation for qualifying property acquired after 19 January 2025, which front-loads the depreciation tax shield and raises project NPV. The example below uses straight-line to keep the arithmetic visible.
Worked project NPV
A firm is considering a new product line. Figures in USD thousands.
- Machine costs 1,000, straight-line to zero over 5 years (200 a year); sold for 150 at the end of year 5.
- 10,000 units a year at $100, variable cost $45 a unit, incremental fixed cash costs 150 a year.
- Uses an owned warehouse that could otherwise be rented for 40 a year (opportunity cost).
- Cannibalises 30 a year of contribution from an existing product (side effect).
- A 50 market study already done is sunk and excluded; 25 a year of allocated head-office overhead does not change and is excluded.
- Net working capital is 12% of revenue, invested at the start and recovered at the end.
- Tax rate 21%; project cost of capital 10%.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Revenue 1,000.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 1,000.0
Variable costs -450.0 -450.0 -450.0 -450.0 -450.0
Fixed cash costs -150.0 -150.0 -150.0 -150.0 -150.0
Lost warehouse rent -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0
Cannibalisation -30.0 -30.0 -30.0 -30.0 -30.0
Depreciation -200.0 -200.0 -200.0 -200.0 -200.0
EBIT 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0
Tax at 21% -27.3 -27.3 -27.3 -27.3 -27.3
NOPAT 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7
+ Depreciation 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0
Capex -1,000.0
Salvage after tax 118.5
Change in NWC -120.0 120.0
Free cash flow -1,120.0 302.7 302.7 302.7 302.7 541.2
Discount factor 10% 1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621
PV -1,120.0 275.2 250.2 227.4 206.7 336.0
NPV = 175.6 IRR = 15.46% AcceptThe depreciation tax shield alone is worth a year, PV 159.2 at 10%: nearly the whole NPV. A tax regime that allows immediate expensing would be worth more still.
Sensitivity, scenario and break-even analysis
A single NPV is a point estimate built on dozens of guesses. Stress the guesses that matter.
Sensitivity (one variable at a time, ±10%, same project; NPV in USD thousands):
| Variable | NPV at −10% | NPV at +10% | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| price | −119.4 | 470.5 | 589.8 |
| units | 15.4 | 335.7 | 320.3 |
| variable cost | 310.3 | 40.8 | 269.5 |
| capex | 259.6 | 91.5 | 168.2 |
| fixed costs | 220.5 | 130.6 | 89.8 |
| discount rate 8% / 12% | 250.9 | 106.5 | 144.4 |
Price is the variable to research first: a 10% miss turns the project negative. Sorted like this, the table is a tornado chart.
Scenarios move correlated variables together:
| Scenario | Units | Price | Variable cost | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 8,000 | $95 | $48 | −334.6 |
| base | 10,000 | $100 | $45 | 175.6 |
| bull | 12,000 | $105 | $43 | 744.7 |
| weighted 25/50/25 | 190.3 |
Break-even (units a year, price $100):
| Break-even | Condition | Units |
|---|---|---|
| cash (pre-tax) | contribution covers fixed cash costs: | 4,000 |
| accounting | EBIT = 0: | 7,636 |
| NPV | NPV = 0, including capital cost and NWC | 8,904 |
Accounting break-even flatters: it recovers depreciation but not the opportunity cost of the 1,000 tied up. The NPV break-even price at 10,000 units is $94.05. Monte Carlo simulation generalizes scenarios by sampling every input from a distribution; it is only as good as the distributions and correlations you feed it, and its output is a distribution of NPVs, not a better discount rate (discount at the cost of capital, not the risk-free rate plus a fudge).
Real options
Static NPV assumes a now-or-never, fixed plan. Real projects let managers react, and flexibility has value because it truncates the downside (the term "real options" is Stewart Myers's, 1977).
| Option | Payoff structure | Example |
|---|---|---|
| expand (growth) | call on the follow-on project | pilot plant; market entry that opens adjacent markets |
| abandon | put: sell or shut for salvage value | walk away from a mine if commodity prices fall |
| delay (timing) | call: wait for information | undeveloped land, oil leases, patents |
| switch | swap inputs or outputs | dual-fuel boiler, flexible factory |
| stage | compound option: invest in tranches | venture funding rounds, drug trials |
- Options are worth more with higher uncertainty and longer time to decide, the reverse of the naive intuition that risk always lowers value.
- Use decision trees for discrete choices; Black–Scholes or binomial models only when the underlying behaves like a traded asset. For most firms the discipline of writing down the decision tree matters more than the option-pricing formula.
- Abuse: "strategic value" and "option value" invoked to rescue a negative-NPV pet project. Demand the tree: what decision, when, triggered by what signal, and what it is worth.
Risk and return: CAPM
Diversification removes firm-specific risk, so investors are paid only for systematic (market) risk. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe 1964; Lintner 1965) prices it:
| Input | Standard choice | Dated value used here |
|---|---|---|
| risk-free rate | 10-year Treasury yield (match duration of cash flows; use a nominal rate for nominal flows) | 4.18% on 31 December 2025 (FRED DGS10); 5.18% on 24 September 2026 |
| equity risk premium | Damodaran's implied ERP for the S&P 500 | 4.23% at 1 January 2026 (Damodaran, January 2026 update) |
| beta | regression or bottom-up industry beta | see below |
Worked: gives . Damodaran's implied ERP backs the premium out of index prices and expected cash flows, which makes it forward-looking; historical-average premiums depend heavily on the period and averaging method. Rates have moved since January: refresh both inputs on the valuation date and keep them from the same date.
Estimating beta
| Method | How | Problems |
|---|---|---|
| regression | regress stock returns on index returns (e.g. 2–5 years weekly or 5 years monthly) | standard error often ±0.2–0.3; depends on index, period, frequency |
| adjusted (Blume) | pulls toward 1; a convention, not a law | |
| bottom-up | average unlevered beta of comparable firms, relevered at your target debt ratio | best practice; averaging cuts estimation error |
Levering and unlevering (Hamada 1972), assuming debt beta of zero:
Worked (tax 21%): four peers with of (1.30, 0.20), (1.15, 0.35), (1.45, 0.10) and (1.05, 0.50) unlever to 1.123, 0.901, 1.344 and 0.753. Median 1.012. Relevered at your target : , so .
Beyond CAPM. Fama and French (1993) added size (SMB) and value (HML) factors; Carhart (1997) added momentum; Fama and French (2015) added profitability (RMW) and investment (CMA) and found HML largely redundant in their sample. Factor models explain the cross-section of returns better, but practitioners still mostly use CAPM for the cost of capital (73.5% of CFOs in Graham and Harvey's survey) because it is simple and the alternatives' factor premiums are unstable. Treat any cost of equity as ±1 percentage point.
Cost of capital
The weighted average cost of capital is the return the firm's assets must earn to satisfy all its investors, with interest tax-deductible:
| Input | Get it right |
|---|---|
| weights | market values (target or long-run), not book; include leases if you treat them as debt |
| yield to maturity on the firm's debt, or + default spread for its rating; not the coupon | |
| marginal rate on interest actually deductible (US §163(j) limits net interest to 30% of adjusted taxable income, EBITDA-based again from 2025) | |
| CAPM with bottom-up beta relevered at the same D/E as the weights |
Worked (USD millions): equity market value 800, debt 200, pre-tax 6.0%, 21%, 9.31% (above).
With the 24 September 2026 10-year yield (5.18%), the same ERP and debt 1 point dearer, it becomes 9.35%. A 1-point rise in rates moves hurdle rates by about a point: revisit hurdles when rates move.
Industry reference points (Damodaran, US, data as of January 2026):
| Industry | Beta | Cost of equity | Debt / capital | Cost of capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software (System & Application) | 1.28 | 9.64% | 5.28% | 9.34% |
| Semiconductor | 1.52 | 10.72% | 2.53% | 10.55% |
| Auto & Truck | 1.46 | 10.45% | 16.45% | 9.38% |
| Restaurant/Dining | 0.92 | 8.07% | 21.40% | 7.16% |
| Retail (General) | 0.81 | 7.54% | 7.36% | 7.27% |
| Utility (General) | 0.24 | 5.02% | 44.90% | 4.36% |
| Total market | 0.91 | 8.02% | 26.02% | 6.96% |
When WACC is wrong
| Situation | Fix |
|---|---|
| project riskier or safer than the firm (new market, different business) | project cost of capital from pure-play comparables' betas |
| conglomerate with divisions of different risk | divisional WACC; a single rate subsidises risky divisions and starves safe ones |
| leverage changing a lot over time (LBO, project finance) | APV: value unlevered at , add PV of tax shields separately |
| cash flows to equity only (banks, insurers) | discount FCFE at ; debt is raw material, not financing |
| country risk | add a country risk premium to the ERP (Damodaran publishes these) |
| fudge factors ("add 5% for risk") | put risk in the cash flows (scenarios, probability of failure), not in an arbitrary rate |
Capital structure
Modigliani and Miller (1958) proved that in perfect markets (no taxes, no distress costs, no information or agency problems, investors can borrow on the same terms as firms) financing does not create value.
| Proposition | No taxes (1958) | Corporate taxes (1963) |
|---|---|---|
| I (value) | (permanent debt) | |
| II (cost of equity) | ||
| WACC | constant at | falls as debt rises |
Worked. EBIT 100 a year forever, = 10%, borrow 400 at 5%.
| No taxes | 21% tax | |
|---|---|---|
| unlevered value | 1,000 | 790 |
| tax shield | 0 | 84 |
| levered value | 1,000 | 874 |
| equity | 600 | 474 |
| cost of equity | 13.33% | 13.33% |
| WACC | 10.00% | 9.04% |
Cheap debt does not lower WACC without taxes: the cost of equity rises exactly enough to offset it. With taxes the government subsidises debt, and the logic points (absurdly) to 100% debt. The theories below explain why firms stop well short.
| Theory | Core idea | Prediction | Evidence / caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| trade-off | tax shield vs expected costs of financial distress (direct legal costs; lost customers, suppliers, staff; underinvestment) | target debt ratio; safe, tangible-asset firms borrow more | Andrade and Kaplan (1998) estimate distress costs at 10–20% of firm value for leveraged deals that became distressed |
| pecking order (Myers and Majluf 1984) | managers know more than investors; issuing equity signals overvaluation | internal funds → debt → equity last; no target ratio | explains why profitable firms borrow little; equity-issue announcements lower prices on average (Asquith and Mullins 1986) |
| signaling | taking on debt commits to paying it; only confident firms do | leverage increases are good news | consistent with announcement returns; hard to separate from pecking order |
| agency costs of equity (Jensen and Meckling 1976; Jensen 1986) | managers with free cash flow overinvest or empire-build | debt disciplines managers by committing cash to creditors | the case for LBOs in mature, cash-rich firms |
| agency costs of debt | shareholders of a near-distressed firm gamble (asset substitution) or skip positive-NPV projects that mainly help creditors (debt overhang, Myers 1977) | covenants, lower leverage for growth firms | why lenders restrict dividends and new borrowing |
| market timing | issue equity when it looks expensive | leverage reflects past issuance windows | complements pecking order |
Practical synthesis. Growth firms with intangible assets and volatile cash flows (most software, biotech, startups) carry little debt. Mature firms with stable cash flows and tangible, collateralisable assets (utilities, REITs, telecoms) carry a lot. Keep enough slack to fund the investment plan through a downturn without issuing equity at the bottom; rating agencies' leverage and coverage bands are a practical ceiling.
Financing options
| Instrument | Typical cost | Key terms / covenants | Fits | Watch out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| revolving credit facility | reference rate (SOFR) + spread; commitment fee on undrawn | maintenance covenants (leverage, interest cover) | working-capital swings, liquidity backstop | can be pulled or limited when you need it most |
| term loan (bank) | SOFR + spread; amortizing | security over assets, financial covenants | capex, acquisitions for mid-sized firms | floating rate: hedge or bear rate risk |
| investment-grade bonds | Treasury + credit spread; fixed | incurrence covenants, light | large, rated companies | refinancing walls; ratings triggers |
| high-yield bonds / leveraged loans | much wider spreads | incurrence covenants; loans often "cov-lite" | LBOs, leveraged firms | expensive; distress risk |
| convertible bonds | low coupon + equity option given away | conversion ratio, call features | high-volatility growth firms | dilution if converted; cost is the option, not the coupon |
| leases | implicit rate in payments | asset-specific; under ASC 842 most leases go on the balance sheet | equipment, property | a lease is debt: include it in leverage and WACC |
| asset-based lending / factoring | spread over receivables or inventory | borrowing base, audits | inventory-heavy or receivables-heavy firms | lender controls collateral |
| venture debt | interest plus warrants | often minimum-cash or other covenants; lender may call on default | VC-backed startups extending runway after a round | covenants can bite before the next raise; see startup finance |
| common equity | cost of equity; issue costs; dilution | none, but governance rights | growth, deleveraging | most expensive capital; signals overvaluation |
| preferred equity | fixed dividend or liquidation preference | seniority, protective provisions | VC rounds, bank capital, rescue financings | layered preferences can crush common value |
Debt is cheaper than equity on paper because of seniority and the tax shield, but every unit of debt raises the cost of equity (MM II) and the probability of distress. The question is never "which is cheaper" but "what mix maximizes firm value given our cash-flow risk".
Payout policy
MM irrelevance (Miller and Modigliani 1961): with investment fixed and no frictions, payout policy does not affect value. Shareholders can create "homemade dividends" by selling shares.
Worked, dividend vs buyback. Firm worth 1,000 (including 100 of excess cash), 100 shares at $10. Pay $1 a share dividend: price falls to $9, each holder has $9 + $1 = $10. Buy back 10 shares at $10: 90 shares worth 900, still $10 each. Same wealth either way, before frictions.
| Friction | Effect |
|---|---|
| taxes | US qualified dividends and long-term gains share rates (0/15/20% plus 3.8% NIIT), but buybacks let holders choose when to realize gains and tax only the gain, not the whole payment |
| buyback excise tax | 1% of the fair market value of stock repurchased by US-listed corporations, net of stock issued in the same year, for repurchases after 31 December 2022 (IRC §4501, Inflation Reduction Act 2022; final regulations November 2025); de minimis $1 million. E.g. $200m of buybacks less $50m issued → $1.5m tax |
| signaling | dividend increases are sticky commitments, so markets read them as confidence; cuts are punished |
| flexibility | buybacks can be paused without the stigma of a dividend cut |
| clienteles | income-seeking or tax-exempt investors may prefer dividends |
| agency | paying out free cash flow stops managers wasting it (Jensen 1986) |
| EPS optics | buybacks mechanically raise EPS when the earnings yield exceeds the after-tax return on cash, whether or not value is created |
EPS optics worked. Net income 100, 100 shares, price $20 (P/E 20, earnings yield 5%). Spend 200 of cash earning 4% pre-tax (3.16% after tax) on 10 shares. Net income falls to 93.68, shares to 90: EPS rises from $1.00 to $1.041 (+4.1%). Share price stays $20: the firm lost 200 of cash and 10% of its shares. Higher EPS came with more leverage and risk, so the P/E drops. Judge a buyback by price paid versus intrinsic value, not by EPS.
Rules of thumb: pay out what you cannot invest above the cost of capital; use regular dividends for the part you are confident is permanent and buybacks for the variable part; buy back only when shares trade below intrinsic value.
Working capital management
Net working capital (operating) = receivables + inventory − payables (and other operating current items). Ratios and statement mechanics: financial statements.
Worked (USD thousands): revenue 12,000, COGS 7,200, receivables 1,500, inventory 1,200, payables 900. DSO 45.6 days, DIO 60.8, DPO 45.6: operating cycle 106.5 days, CCC 60.8 days. Cutting DSO by 10 days frees ; cutting DIO by 10 days frees about 197. Cash released from working capital is a one-off gain, but it is real cash at zero cost of capital.
| Lever | Tactic | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|
| receivables | invoice immediately, shorter terms, card or direct debit, early-payment discount | discount "2/10 net 30" costs the seller about 37% a year (simple; about 45% compounded); customers may walk |
| inventory | demand forecasting, fewer SKUs, just-in-time, vendor-managed stock | stock-outs and supply-chain fragility (2021–22) |
| payables | negotiate longer terms, pay on the due date not before | squeezing suppliers raises prices or kills weak suppliers |
| model | upfront or annual prepaid billing | negative CCC: customers fund growth (common in subscription software and retailers with fast inventory turns) |
Growth consumes working capital: a profitable firm growing fast with a long CCC can run out of cash. Forecast NWC as days of revenue or COGS, not as a plug.
Financial planning and forecasting
Percent-of-sales method. Items that scale with revenue (most operating assets, payables, accruals) are forecast as a percentage of sales; financing items are decided. The gap is additional funds needed:
where are assets tied to sales, spontaneous liabilities, net margin, payout ratio. Worked: sales 10,000 growing 20%, assets/sales 0.80, spontaneous liabilities/sales 0.15, margin 6%, payout 40%: of new external financing.
Sustainable growth rate: the fastest growth possible without new equity and with constant leverage, payout and asset turnover:
ROE 15% and retention 60% gives 9% (9.89% on the beginning-equity form). The internal growth rate (no external financing at all) uses ROA instead: 7.5% ROA and 60% retention → 4.71%. Growing faster than requires raising margins, turnover, leverage or retention, or issuing equity. DuPont: .
Three-statement model outline:
Drivers
Revenue build (volume × price, or cohorts), gross margin, opex as % of revenue or headcount, capex, D&A, NWC days, tax rate, interest rate, payout.
Income statement
Revenue → EBITDA → EBIT → interest (on average debt) → tax → net income.
Balance sheet
PP&E roll-forward (opening + capex − D&A), NWC from days, equity roll-forward (opening + net income − dividends − buybacks + issuance), debt schedule.
Cash flow statement
Net income + D&A − ΔNWC − capex ± financing. Cash (or the revolver) is the balancing item.
Check and stress
Balance sheet balances every period; interest-on-average-debt circularity handled (iterative calc or opening balances); run downside cases against covenants and liquidity.
Risk management and hedging
Under MM, hedging should not add value: investors can diversify themselves. It does add value when it cuts expected distress costs, lets the firm fund its investment plan without costly external finance (Froot, Scharfstein and Stein 1993), reduces expected taxes when the tax schedule is convex, or improves managers' information by removing noise from results.
| Exposure | Example | Instrument |
|---|---|---|
| transaction FX | exporter receiving €10m in 6 months | forward, option, natural hedge (costs in euros) |
| translation FX | foreign subsidiary's balance sheet | borrow in local currency; often left unhedged |
| economic FX | competitor's costs are in a weakening currency | strategic: move production, pricing |
| interest rate | floating-rate term loan | interest-rate swap (pay fixed, receive floating), cap |
| commodity | airline fuel, food manufacturer's wheat | futures, swaps, options, fixed-price contracts |
| credit | concentrated customer | credit insurance, letters of credit |
| Instrument | What it does | Cost / risk |
|---|---|---|
| forward | OTC contract to buy or sell later at a price fixed today | no upfront cost; locks out upside; counterparty risk |
| future | exchange-traded, standardized forward, marked to market daily | margin calls drain cash before the hedged item pays |
| swap | exchange one stream for another (fixed for floating, one currency for another) | counterparty and basis risk |
| option | right, not obligation, to trade at a strike | pay a premium; keeps upside |
Covered interest parity sets the forward FX rate: . Illustrative (not market) numbers: spot 1.1700 USD per EUR, 6-month USD rate 4.2%, EUR rate 2.1% → forward 1.1822; the exporter locks in $11.82m for its €10m. Hedge committed or highly probable exposures; hedging more than the exposure is speculation. Metallgesellschaft (1993) is the classic warning: a rolling short-dated futures hedge on long-dated fixed-price supply contracts produced huge margin calls when oil prices fell, and the parent unwound the positions at a large loss.
Mergers and acquisitions
An acquisition is a capital-budgeting decision with a large, uncertain price:
| Motive | Sound? |
|---|---|
| cost synergies (overlap, procurement, scale) | often real; usually easier to deliver than revenue synergies |
| revenue synergies (cross-sell, distribution) | frequently overestimated |
| replacing bad management (control premium) | real when the target is badly run |
| tax, unused tax losses, cheaper financing | sometimes; scrutinise |
| diversification | shareholders can diversify more cheaply themselves |
| EPS accretion | not a source of value (see below) |
| empire building, hubris (Roll 1986) | the source of many bad deals |
Accretion and dilution
Acquirer: net income $500m, 250m shares (EPS $2.00), price $40 (P/E 20). Target: net income $60m, market value $960m (P/E 16); acquirer pays a 25% premium, $1,200m (P/E 20 on the price paid). Tax 21%.
| Structure | Combined net income | Shares | EPS | vs $2.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| all stock (30m new shares at $40) | 560.0 | 280 | $2.000 | 0.0% |
| all debt at 6% (after-tax interest 56.9) | 503.1 | 250 | $2.013 | +0.6% |
| stock + $40m pre-tax synergies | 591.6 | 280 | $2.113 | +5.6% |
| debt + $40m pre-tax synergies | 534.7 | 250 | $2.139 | +6.9% |
- A stock deal is accretive when the acquirer's P/E exceeds the P/E paid; a debt deal when the target's earnings yield at the price paid (5.0%) exceeds the after-tax cost of debt (4.74%).
- The debt deal with no synergies is accretive yet destroys $240m (the premium, before deal costs; any tax shield on the new debt was available without buying anything). EPS says nothing about whether the premium was earned.
- With $40m a year of pre-tax synergies (31.6 after tax, perpetual, discounted at 9%), synergies are worth $351m against a $240m premium: NPV about +$111m. Break-even synergies are about $27m a year pre-tax.
Evidence
- Andrade, Mitchell and Stafford (2001), US mergers 1973–1998: announcement returns averaged about +16% for targets, −0.7% for acquirers and +1.8% combined. Mergers create some value on average, but the target's shareholders capture nearly all of it.
- Moeller, Schlingemann and Stulz (2005): acquiring-firm shareholders lost about 12 cents per dollar spent at announcement, a total of $240 billion from 1998 to 2001, against $7 billion in all of the 1980s. The losses were concentrated in a small number of very large deals by highly valued acquirers.
- So "most acquisitions destroy value" is too strong as a universal claim; "the average acquirer earns roughly nothing, and large, richly valued, stock-financed acquirers in hot markets have done worst" is what the evidence supports. AOL–Time Warner is the canonical example (see valuation).
Negotiation and bidding dynamics (winner's curse, auction design) are in game theory.
Corporate governance
Governance is the set of mechanisms that make managers act for owners: the answer to Jensen and Meckling's agency problem.
| Mechanism | How it works | Weakness |
|---|---|---|
| board of directors | hires, pays, fires the CEO; approves major capital decisions | captured by the CEO; part-time, information-poor |
| executive pay | equity and performance-linked pay align incentives | rewards luck; EPS and TSR targets invite manipulation and buybacks |
| shareholder voting and activism | proxy fights, say on pay, activist hedge funds | short horizons; passive funds vote but rarely engage deeply |
| market for corporate control | takeovers replace poor managers | anti-takeover defenses (poison pills, staggered boards) |
| debt and covenants | fixed claims force discipline | can induce underinvestment |
| disclosure and audit | SEC reporting, independent auditors, Sarbanes–Oxley internal controls | Enron and Wirecard show auditors can miss fraud |
| dual-class shares | founders keep control while raising capital | insulates managers from accountability |
For startups, governance lives in the board composition and protective provisions negotiated in each round (see startup finance).
Templates and checklists
Capital-budgeting template
PROJECT: ____________________ Owner: ________ Date: ______
Decision: accept / reject / defer Alternatives considered: ___
1. Incremental cash flows (with project minus without)
Revenue drivers (volume x price): ________________
Variable cost / unit; fixed cash costs: ________________
Opportunity costs (assets used): ________________
Side effects (cannibalisation, spillover):________________
EXCLUDED: sunk costs ____ unchanged overhead ____ interest
Capex schedule and useful life: ________________
Depreciation method (tax) and shield: ________________
NWC (days of revenue/COGS), recovery: ________________
Salvage value and tax on gain: ________________
Tax rate (marginal): ________________
2. Discount rate
Comparable pure-play betas (unlevered): ________________
Relevered beta at target D/E: ________________
Rf ____ (date ____) ERP ____ (source/date ____)
Project WACC: ________________
3. Results
NPV ____ IRR ____ MIRR ____ PI ____ Disc. payback ____
% of PV from final year / terminal value: ____
4. Risk
Tornado: top 3 variables and NPV swing: ________________
Bear / base / bull NPV and weights: ________________
NPV break-even (units, price): ________________
Real options (expand / abandon / delay): ________________
5. Post-investment review date and KPIs: ________________CFO questions checklist
[ ] Does every project's NPV rest on cash flows, not profit?
[ ] Are sunk costs excluded and opportunity costs included?
[ ] Is interest excluded from cash flows (it is in WACC)?
[ ] Is the discount rate specific to the project's risk?
[ ] Rf and ERP from the same date, and is the date stated?
[ ] Nominal flows with nominal rate, after-tax with after-tax?
[ ] Do we rank mutually exclusive projects by NPV, not IRR?
[ ] What single variable turns NPV negative, and how likely?
[ ] Is leverage within rating and covenant headroom in a downturn?
[ ] Could we fund the plan for 12-24 months without new equity?
[ ] Are payouts funded by free cash flow, not new borrowing?
[ ] Are buybacks done below intrinsic value, not to hit EPS?
[ ] What is our cash conversion cycle, and its trend?
[ ] Which FX, rate and commodity exposures are hedged, and why?
[ ] For each acquisition: synergies PV vs premium, not EPS?
[ ] Who reviews the outcome of past capital decisions?
[ ] Do incentive plans reward value created or EPS/growth?References
- Richard A. Brealey, Stewart C. Myers, Franklin Allen and Alex Edmans, Principles of Corporate Finance, 14th ed. (McGraw Hill, 2023): the standard graduate text; NPV, cost of capital, MM, payout, real options
- Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart and David Wessels (McKinsey & Company), Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, 8th ed. (Wiley, 2025): value creation, WACC and capital structure in practice
- Aswath Damodaran: Cost of equity and capital by industry (US), January 2026 (opens in a new tab): industry betas, costs of equity and WACC used in the table above
- Aswath Damodaran: Historical implied equity risk premiums, January 2026 (opens in a new tab): implied ERP 4.23% and T-bond rate 4.18% at the start of 2026
- Damodaran, Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications, 2026 edition (SSRN) (opens in a new tab): annual survey paper on estimating the ERP
- FRED: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10) (opens in a new tab): Federal Reserve Board H.15 data; 4.18% on 31 December 2025, 5.18% on 24 September 2026
- Milton Friedman, "A Friedman Doctrine: The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits", New York Times Magazine, 13 September 1970: the shareholder-primacy essay quoted above
- Business Roundtable: Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation (19 August 2019) (opens in a new tab): the 181-CEO stakeholder statement
- Franco Modigliani and Merton H. Miller, "The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment", American Economic Review 48(3), 1958: capital-structure irrelevance
- Franco Modigliani and Merton H. Miller, "Corporate Income Taxes and the Cost of Capital: A Correction", American Economic Review 53(3), 1963: the tax shield
- Merton H. Miller and Franco Modigliani, "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares", Journal of Business 34(4), 1961: payout irrelevance
- William F. Sharpe, "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk", Journal of Finance 19(3), 1964: the CAPM
- Robert S. Hamada, "The Effect of the Firm's Capital Structure on the Systematic Risk of Common Stocks", Journal of Finance 27(2), 1972: levering and unlevering beta
- Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, "Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds", Journal of Financial Economics 33(1), 1993; and "A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model", JFE 116(1), 2015
- Michael C. Jensen and William H. Meckling, "Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure", Journal of Financial Economics 3(4), 1976: agency costs
- Michael C. Jensen, "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers", American Economic Review 76(2), 1986: debt as discipline
- Stewart C. Myers and Nicholas S. Majluf, "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investors Do Not Have", Journal of Financial Economics 13(2), 1984: the pecking order
- Stewart C. Myers, "Determinants of Corporate Borrowing", Journal of Financial Economics 5(2), 1977: debt overhang and the origin of "real options"
- Andrade and Kaplan (1998), How Costly Is Financial (Not Economic) Distress? (opens in a new tab), Journal of Finance 53(5): distress costs of 10–20% of firm value
- Paul Asquith and David W. Mullins, "Equity Issues and Offering Dilution", Journal of Financial Economics 15(1–2), 1986: negative price reaction to equity issues
- Graham and Harvey (2001), The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence from the Field (opens in a new tab), Journal of Financial Economics 60(2–3): CFO survey on NPV, IRR and CAPM use
- Kenneth A. Froot, David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy C. Stein, "Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies", Journal of Finance 48(5), 1993: why hedging can add value
- Andrade, Mitchell and Stafford (2001), New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers (opens in a new tab), Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(2): target, acquirer and combined announcement returns
- Moeller, Schlingemann and Stulz (2005), Wealth Destruction on a Massive Scale? (opens in a new tab), Journal of Finance 60(2): $240 billion of acquirer losses in 1998–2001
- Richard Roll, "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers", Journal of Business 59(2), 1986: overconfident bidders
- Congressional Research Service: The 1% Excise Tax on Stock Repurchases (R47397) (opens in a new tab): how IRC §4501 works
- Sullivan & Cromwell: IRS Issues Final Regulations on Stock Buyback Tax (November 2025) (opens in a new tab): summary of the final §4501 regulations