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Corporate finance

How a firm decides what to invest in, how to pay for it and what to hand back to its owners: the goal of the firm, time value of money, capital budgeting (NPV, IRR and their traps), incremental cash flows, risk and the cost of capital (CAPM, beta, WACC), capital structure (Modigliani–Miller and what breaks it), financing instruments, payout, working capital, planning, hedging and M&A. Statement mechanics, free cash flow definitions and ratios live in financial statements and accounting; pricing a whole business is valuation; cap tables and SAFEs are in startup finance. Portfolio theory basics are in investing; probability tools in probability and risk.

The goal of the firm

The textbook objective (Brealey, Myers, Allen and Edmans; Koller et al.) is to maximize the long-run value of the firm to its owners, which in practice means taking every project whose expected cash flows are worth more than they cost, at a discount rate that reflects their risk. Value, not accounting profit, market share or EPS.

ObjectiveProblem with it
maximize profitwhich year's? ignores timing, risk and the capital used to earn it
maximize EPScan be raised by value-destroying buybacks, leverage or acquisitions (see M&A)
maximize revenue or sharegrowth that earns less than the cost of capital destroys value
maximize share price todayinvites short-termism if markets are misinformed; right only with long-run, well-informed prices
maximize long-run valuethe standard answer; needs judgment on horizon and on who bears risk

Shareholder vs stakeholder. Milton Friedman's essay "A Friedman Doctrine: The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits" (New York Times Magazine, 13 September 1970) argued that "there is one and only one social responsibility of business—to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud." On 19 August 2019 the Business Roundtable issued a new Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation, signed by 181 CEOs, committing to deliver value to customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders, replacing its 1997 language that put shareholders first.

  • The two positions overlap more than the rhetoric suggests: over a long horizon, mistreating customers or staff usually destroys shareholder value too (Koller et al. make this argument).
  • The real conflicts are trade-offs that cost owners money (e.g. keeping an unprofitable plant open). "Serve all stakeholders" gives no rule for resolving them, which is the standard criticism: a manager accountable to everyone is accountable to no one.
  • Working rule for this sheet: maximize long-run value subject to law, contracts and the constraints the firm chooses to adopt; price externalities explicitly rather than hiding them in a vague mission.

The big decisions

DecisionQuestionMain toolsSections
Investment (capital budgeting)which real assets should we buy?NPV, IRR, scenarios, real optionscapital budgeting, cash flows
Financingdebt or equity, and which instrument?cost of capital, MM, trade-off, pecking orderWACC, capital structure
Payoutwhat do we return, and how?dividends vs buybackspayout policy
Working capitalhow much cash is tied up running the business?CCC, DSO/DIO/DPOworking capital

Separation principle: in a frictionless world the investment decision is made on NPV alone and the financing decision does not change it. Most of corporate finance is about the frictions (taxes, distress, information, agency) that make the financing side matter at the margin.

Time value of money for firms

Basics (FV, PV, rule of 72, real vs nominal) are in money basics. The firm toolkit adds perpetuities and the discipline of matching cash flows to rates.

StreamFormulaExample (rr = 8%)
single sumPV=Ct(1+r)tPV = \dfrac{C_t}{(1+r)^t}—
annuity, nn periodsPV=C 1−(1+r)−nrPV = C\,\dfrac{1 - (1+r)^{-n}}{r}$100 a year for 10 years → $671.01
perpetuityPV=CrPV = \dfrac{C}{r}$100 a year forever → $1,250
growing perpetuityPV=C1r−gPV = \dfrac{C_1}{r - g}, g<rg < r$100 next year, growing 3% → $2,000
growing annuityPV=C1r−g[1−(1+g1+r)n]PV = \dfrac{C_1}{r-g}\left[1 - \left(\dfrac{1+g}{1+r}\right)^n\right]same, 10 years only → $755.01
net present valueNPV=∑t=0nCt(1+r)tNPV = \sum_{t=0}^{n} \dfrac{C_t}{(1+r)^t}C0C_0 is usually negative

APR vs EAR. A quoted annual percentage rate compounded mm times a year has effective annual rate EAR=(1+APR/m)m−1EAR = (1 + APR/m)^m - 1; continuous compounding gives eAPR−1e^{APR} - 1. At 12% APR: monthly 12.68%, daily 12.75%, continuous 12.75%. Always compare effective rates, and match the period of the rate to the period of the cash flow.

Consistency rules that catch most errors:

  • Nominal cash flows with a nominal rate, real with real; never mix.
  • After-tax cash flows with after-tax rates.
  • Cash flows to the whole firm (FCFF) with WACC; cash flows to equity (FCFE) with the cost of equity.
  • The C1/(r−g)C_1/(r-g) formula needs next period's cash flow, not this period's.

Capital budgeting

Net present value is the value a project adds today: the present value of its incremental cash flows at the opportunity cost of capital (the return investors could earn on a traded asset of the same risk), minus the investment. Accept if NPV > 0. It is the only common rule that is consistent with value maximization in all cases, because NPVs add up: NPV(A+B)=NPV(A)+NPV(B)NPV(A + B) = NPV(A) + NPV(B).

RuleDefinitionAccept ifVerdict
NPV∑Ct/(1+r)t\sum C_t/(1+r)^t> 0the benchmark
IRRrate where NPV = 0IRR > rragrees with NPV only for single, conventional, independent projects
MIRRIRR with inflows reinvested at rrMIRR > rrfixes the multiple-IRR problem, still ranks badly on scale
paybackyears until cumulative cash flow ≥ 0≤ cut-offignores time value and everything after the cut-off
discounted paybackpayback on discounted flows≤ cut-offbetter, still ignores later flows
profitability indexPV(inflows)/investmentPV(\text{inflows}) / \text{investment}> 1useful only for ranking under a hard capital constraint
accounting rate of returnaverage profit / average book investment> targetuses accounting profit, not cash; no time value; avoid

In Graham and Harvey's 2001 survey of 392 US CFOs, about three-quarters said they always or almost always use NPV and IRR, and a majority also used payback. IRR is popular because a percentage is easy to communicate; the decision should still rest on NPV.

Worked example

Project A costs $1,000 and returns $300, $400, $500, $200 over four years; the cost of capital is 10%.

Year                  0        1        2        3        4
Cash flow        -1,000      300      400      500      200
Cumulative       -1,000     -700     -300      200      400
Discount factor   1.000    0.909    0.826    0.751    0.683
PV               -1,000    272.7    330.6    375.7    136.6
Cumulative PV    -1,000   -727.3   -396.7    -21.0    115.6
MeasureResult
NPV at 10%$115.57 (accept)
IRR15.32%
MIRR (reinvest at 10%)13.05%
payback2 + 300/500 = 2.6 years
discounted payback3 + 21.0/136.6 = 3.15 years
profitability index1,115.6 / 1,000 = 1.12

IRR pitfalls

IRR is the root of a polynomial, not a measure of value. Four ways it misleads:

PitfallExample (cost of capital 10%)IRR saysNPV says
multiple IRRs (sign changes twice)−1,600, +10,000, −10,00025% and 400%−$773.55: reject
lending vs borrowing+1,000, −1,20020% ("great")−$90.91: you are borrowing at 20%
scale (mutually exclusive)S: −100, +150 · L: −1,000, +1,300S (50% vs 30%)L ($181.82 vs $36.36)
timing (mutually exclusive)Q: −1,000, +1,200 in yr 1 · R: −1,000, +1,650 in yr 3Q (20.0% vs 18.2%)R ($239.67 vs $90.91)
  • Multiple IRRs: Descartes' rule of signs allows one IRR per sign change. Projects with clean-up costs at the end (mines, nuclear plants) often have two. Use NPV, or MIRR.
  • Scale: a high return on a small investment adds less value than a lower return on a large one. The fix if you must use IRR: compute the IRR of the incremental cash flows (L − S = −900, +1,150), which is 27.8%

    10%, so take L.

  • Timing: the NPV profiles cross at 17.26%. Below that rate R is worth more; above it Q is. IRR implicitly assumes reinvestment at the IRR itself; NPV assumes reinvestment at the cost of capital, which is the right opportunity cost.
  • Term structure: IRR compares to a single hurdle; if rates differ by maturity, NPV can discount each year at its own rate and IRR cannot.
RateNPV of QNPV of R
5%142.9425.3
10%90.9239.7
15%43.584.9
20%0.0−45.1

Capital rationing. With a hard budget, rank by profitability index and fill the budget, or solve it as an integer program (maximize ∑NPVixi\sum NPV_i x_i subject to ∑Iixi≤B\sum I_i x_i \le B). Most rationing is soft (a management-imposed limit); if positive-NPV projects are being turned away, the constraint itself is costing money.

Incremental cash flows

Discount cash, not profit, and only cash that changes because of the decision: firm cash flow with the project minus firm cash flow without it.

ItemRuleExample
sunk costsignore; already spent whatever you decidelast year's $50k market study
opportunity costsinclude the value of the best alternative useowned warehouse you could rent out
side effectsinclude cannibalisation and spilloversnew model steals sales from old one
allocated overheadinclude only if total overhead actually riseshead-office cost reallocated → exclude
net working capitaloutflow when inventory and receivables build, inflow when recoveredNWC at 12% of revenue
taxesuse marginal tax rate on incremental profit21% US federal rate
depreciationnot cash, but its tax shield T×DT \times D is$200k depreciation saves $42k tax
financing costsexclude interest; it is in the discount rate (WACC)counting both double-counts
salvageafter-tax: price − tax on (price − book value)sell for $150k at book 0 → $118.5k
inflationbe consistent: nominal flows at nominal rateescalate prices and costs explicitly

Operating cash flow three equivalent ways: OCF=EBIT(1−T)+D=(R−C)(1−T)+TD=NI+DOCF = EBIT(1-T) + D = (R - C)(1-T) + T D = NI + D (the last only with no debt). Free cash flow for a project: FCF=EBIT(1−T)+D−CapEx−ΔNWCFCF = EBIT(1-T) + D - \text{CapEx} - \Delta NWC.

US tax notes (verify before use): the federal corporate rate is 21% (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017); the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act restored 100% bonus depreciation for qualifying property acquired after 19 January 2025, which front-loads the depreciation tax shield and raises project NPV. The example below uses straight-line to keep the arithmetic visible.

Worked project NPV

A firm is considering a new product line. Figures in USD thousands.

  • Machine costs 1,000, straight-line to zero over 5 years (200 a year); sold for 150 at the end of year 5.
  • 10,000 units a year at $100, variable cost $45 a unit, incremental fixed cash costs 150 a year.
  • Uses an owned warehouse that could otherwise be rented for 40 a year (opportunity cost).
  • Cannibalises 30 a year of contribution from an existing product (side effect).
  • A 50 market study already done is sunk and excluded; 25 a year of allocated head-office overhead does not change and is excluded.
  • Net working capital is 12% of revenue, invested at the start and recovered at the end.
  • Tax rate 21%; project cost of capital 10%.
Year                     0        1        2        3        4        5
Revenue                      1,000.0  1,000.0  1,000.0  1,000.0  1,000.0
Variable costs                -450.0   -450.0   -450.0   -450.0   -450.0
Fixed cash costs              -150.0   -150.0   -150.0   -150.0   -150.0
Lost warehouse rent            -40.0    -40.0    -40.0    -40.0    -40.0
Cannibalisation                -30.0    -30.0    -30.0    -30.0    -30.0
Depreciation                  -200.0   -200.0   -200.0   -200.0   -200.0
EBIT                           130.0    130.0    130.0    130.0    130.0
Tax at 21%                     -27.3    -27.3    -27.3    -27.3    -27.3
NOPAT                          102.7    102.7    102.7    102.7    102.7
+ Depreciation                 200.0    200.0    200.0    200.0    200.0
Capex                 -1,000.0
Salvage after tax                                                 118.5
Change in NWC           -120.0                                    120.0
Free cash flow        -1,120.0   302.7    302.7    302.7    302.7  541.2
Discount factor 10%      1.000   0.909    0.826    0.751    0.683  0.621
PV                    -1,120.0   275.2    250.2    227.4    206.7  336.0
 
NPV = 175.6      IRR = 15.46%      Accept

The depreciation tax shield alone is worth 0.21×200=420.21 \times 200 = 42 a year, PV 159.2 at 10%: nearly the whole NPV. A tax regime that allows immediate expensing would be worth more still.

Sensitivity, scenario and break-even analysis

A single NPV is a point estimate built on dozens of guesses. Stress the guesses that matter.

Sensitivity (one variable at a time, ±10%, same project; NPV in USD thousands):

VariableNPV at −10%NPV at +10%Swing
price−119.4470.5589.8
units15.4335.7320.3
variable cost310.340.8269.5
capex259.691.5168.2
fixed costs220.5130.689.8
discount rate 8% / 12%250.9106.5144.4

Price is the variable to research first: a 10% miss turns the project negative. Sorted like this, the table is a tornado chart.

Scenarios move correlated variables together:

ScenarioUnitsPriceVariable costNPV
bear8,000$95$48−334.6
base10,000$100$45175.6
bull12,000$105$43744.7
weighted 25/50/25190.3

Break-even (units a year, price $100):

Break-evenConditionUnits
cash (pre-tax)contribution covers fixed cash costs: 220/55220 / 554,000
accountingEBIT = 0: (220+200)/55(220 + 200) / 557,636
NPVNPV = 0, including capital cost and NWC8,904

Accounting break-even flatters: it recovers depreciation but not the opportunity cost of the 1,000 tied up. The NPV break-even price at 10,000 units is $94.05. Monte Carlo simulation generalizes scenarios by sampling every input from a distribution; it is only as good as the distributions and correlations you feed it, and its output is a distribution of NPVs, not a better discount rate (discount at the cost of capital, not the risk-free rate plus a fudge).

Real options

Static NPV assumes a now-or-never, fixed plan. Real projects let managers react, and flexibility has value because it truncates the downside (the term "real options" is Stewart Myers's, 1977).

OptionPayoff structureExample
expand (growth)call on the follow-on projectpilot plant; market entry that opens adjacent markets
abandonput: sell or shut for salvage valuewalk away from a mine if commodity prices fall
delay (timing)call: wait for informationundeveloped land, oil leases, patents
switchswap inputs or outputsdual-fuel boiler, flexible factory
stagecompound option: invest in tranchesventure funding rounds, drug trials
Project value=static NPV+value of flexibility\text{Project value} = \text{static NPV} + \text{value of flexibility}
  • Options are worth more with higher uncertainty and longer time to decide, the reverse of the naive intuition that risk always lowers value.
  • Use decision trees for discrete choices; Black–Scholes or binomial models only when the underlying behaves like a traded asset. For most firms the discipline of writing down the decision tree matters more than the option-pricing formula.
  • Abuse: "strategic value" and "option value" invoked to rescue a negative-NPV pet project. Demand the tree: what decision, when, triggered by what signal, and what it is worth.

Risk and return: CAPM

Diversification removes firm-specific risk, so investors are paid only for systematic (market) risk. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe 1964; Lintner 1965) prices it:

E[Ri]=Rf+βi(E[Rm]−Rf),βi=Cov⁡(Ri,Rm)Var⁡(Rm)E[R_i] = R_f + \beta_i \left(E[R_m] - R_f\right), \qquad \beta_i = \frac{\operatorname{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\operatorname{Var}(R_m)}
InputStandard choiceDated value used here
risk-free rate RfR_f10-year Treasury yield (match duration of cash flows; use a nominal rate for nominal flows)4.18% on 31 December 2025 (FRED DGS10); 5.18% on 24 September 2026
equity risk premiumDamodaran's implied ERP for the S&P 5004.23% at 1 January 2026 (Damodaran, January 2026 update)
beta βi\beta_iregression or bottom-up industry betasee below

Worked: β=1.2\beta = 1.2 gives 4.18%+1.2×4.23%=9.26%4.18\% + 1.2 \times 4.23\% = 9.26\%. Damodaran's implied ERP backs the premium out of index prices and expected cash flows, which makes it forward-looking; historical-average premiums depend heavily on the period and averaging method. Rates have moved since January: refresh both inputs on the valuation date and keep them from the same date.

Estimating beta

MethodHowProblems
regressionregress stock returns on index returns (e.g. 2–5 years weekly or 5 years monthly)standard error often ±0.2–0.3; depends on index, period, frequency
adjusted (Blume)0.67βraw+0.330.67 \beta_{raw} + 0.33pulls toward 1; a convention, not a law
bottom-upaverage unlevered beta of comparable firms, relevered at your target debt ratiobest practice; averaging cuts estimation error

Levering and unlevering (Hamada 1972), assuming debt beta of zero:

βL=βU[1+(1−T)DE]⟺βU=βL1+(1−T) D/E\beta_L = \beta_U \left[1 + (1 - T)\frac{D}{E}\right] \qquad\Longleftrightarrow\qquad \beta_U = \frac{\beta_L}{1 + (1 - T)\,D/E}

Worked (tax 21%): four peers with (βL,D/E)(\beta_L, D/E) of (1.30, 0.20), (1.15, 0.35), (1.45, 0.10) and (1.05, 0.50) unlever to 1.123, 0.901, 1.344 and 0.753. Median 1.012. Relevered at your target D/E=0.25D/E = 0.25: 1.012×(1+0.79×0.25)=1.2121.012 \times (1 + 0.79 \times 0.25) = 1.212, so kE=4.18%+1.212×4.23%=9.31%k_E = 4.18\% + 1.212 \times 4.23\% = 9.31\%.

Beyond CAPM. Fama and French (1993) added size (SMB) and value (HML) factors; Carhart (1997) added momentum; Fama and French (2015) added profitability (RMW) and investment (CMA) and found HML largely redundant in their sample. Factor models explain the cross-section of returns better, but practitioners still mostly use CAPM for the cost of capital (73.5% of CFOs in Graham and Harvey's survey) because it is simple and the alternatives' factor premiums are unstable. Treat any cost of equity as ±1 percentage point.

Cost of capital

The weighted average cost of capital is the return the firm's assets must earn to satisfy all its investors, with interest tax-deductible:

WACC=ED+E kE+DD+E kD (1−Tc)WACC = \frac{E}{D+E}\,k_E + \frac{D}{D+E}\,k_D\,(1 - T_c)
InputGet it right
weightsmarket values (target or long-run), not book; include leases if you treat them as debt
kDk_Dyield to maturity on the firm's debt, or RfR_f + default spread for its rating; not the coupon
TcT_cmarginal rate on interest actually deductible (US §163(j) limits net interest to 30% of adjusted taxable income, EBITDA-based again from 2025)
kEk_ECAPM with bottom-up beta relevered at the same D/E as the weights

Worked (USD millions): equity market value 800, debt 200, pre-tax kDk_D 6.0%, TcT_c 21%, kEk_E 9.31% (above).

WACC=0.8×9.31%+0.2×6.0%×0.79=7.45%+0.95%=8.39%WACC = 0.8 \times 9.31\% + 0.2 \times 6.0\% \times 0.79 = 7.45\% + 0.95\% = 8.39\%

With the 24 September 2026 10-year yield (5.18%), the same ERP and debt 1 point dearer, it becomes 9.35%. A 1-point rise in rates moves hurdle rates by about a point: revisit hurdles when rates move.

Industry reference points (Damodaran, US, data as of January 2026):

IndustryBetaCost of equityDebt / capitalCost of capital
Software (System & Application)1.289.64%5.28%9.34%
Semiconductor1.5210.72%2.53%10.55%
Auto & Truck1.4610.45%16.45%9.38%
Restaurant/Dining0.928.07%21.40%7.16%
Retail (General)0.817.54%7.36%7.27%
Utility (General)0.245.02%44.90%4.36%
Total market0.918.02%26.02%6.96%

When WACC is wrong

SituationFix
project riskier or safer than the firm (new market, different business)project cost of capital from pure-play comparables' betas
conglomerate with divisions of different riskdivisional WACC; a single rate subsidises risky divisions and starves safe ones
leverage changing a lot over time (LBO, project finance)APV: value unlevered at kUk_U, add PV of tax shields separately
cash flows to equity only (banks, insurers)discount FCFE at kEk_E; debt is raw material, not financing
country riskadd a country risk premium to the ERP (Damodaran publishes these)
fudge factors ("add 5% for risk")put risk in the cash flows (scenarios, probability of failure), not in an arbitrary rate

Capital structure

Modigliani and Miller (1958) proved that in perfect markets (no taxes, no distress costs, no information or agency problems, investors can borrow on the same terms as firms) financing does not create value.

PropositionNo taxes (1958)Corporate taxes (1963)
I (value)VL=VUV_L = V_UVL=VU+TcDV_L = V_U + T_c D (permanent debt)
II (cost of equity)kE=kU+(kU−kD)DEk_E = k_U + (k_U - k_D)\dfrac{D}{E}kE=kU+(kU−kD)(1−Tc)DEk_E = k_U + (k_U - k_D)(1 - T_c)\dfrac{D}{E}
WACCconstant at kUk_Ufalls as debt rises

Worked. EBIT 100 a year forever, kUk_U = 10%, borrow 400 at 5%.

No taxes21% tax
unlevered value VUV_U1,000790
tax shield TcDT_c D084
levered value VLV_L1,000874
equity VL−DV_L - D600474
cost of equity13.33%13.33%
WACC10.00%9.04%

Cheap debt does not lower WACC without taxes: the cost of equity rises exactly enough to offset it. With taxes the government subsidises debt, and the logic points (absurdly) to 100% debt. The theories below explain why firms stop well short.

TheoryCore ideaPredictionEvidence / caveat
trade-offtax shield vs expected costs of financial distress (direct legal costs; lost customers, suppliers, staff; underinvestment)target debt ratio; safe, tangible-asset firms borrow moreAndrade and Kaplan (1998) estimate distress costs at 10–20% of firm value for leveraged deals that became distressed
pecking order (Myers and Majluf 1984)managers know more than investors; issuing equity signals overvaluationinternal funds → debt → equity last; no target ratioexplains why profitable firms borrow little; equity-issue announcements lower prices on average (Asquith and Mullins 1986)
signalingtaking on debt commits to paying it; only confident firms doleverage increases are good newsconsistent with announcement returns; hard to separate from pecking order
agency costs of equity (Jensen and Meckling 1976; Jensen 1986)managers with free cash flow overinvest or empire-builddebt disciplines managers by committing cash to creditorsthe case for LBOs in mature, cash-rich firms
agency costs of debtshareholders of a near-distressed firm gamble (asset substitution) or skip positive-NPV projects that mainly help creditors (debt overhang, Myers 1977)covenants, lower leverage for growth firmswhy lenders restrict dividends and new borrowing
market timingissue equity when it looks expensiveleverage reflects past issuance windowscomplements pecking order

Practical synthesis. Growth firms with intangible assets and volatile cash flows (most software, biotech, startups) carry little debt. Mature firms with stable cash flows and tangible, collateralisable assets (utilities, REITs, telecoms) carry a lot. Keep enough slack to fund the investment plan through a downturn without issuing equity at the bottom; rating agencies' leverage and coverage bands are a practical ceiling.

Financing options

InstrumentTypical costKey terms / covenantsFitsWatch out
revolving credit facilityreference rate (SOFR) + spread; commitment fee on undrawnmaintenance covenants (leverage, interest cover)working-capital swings, liquidity backstopcan be pulled or limited when you need it most
term loan (bank)SOFR + spread; amortizingsecurity over assets, financial covenantscapex, acquisitions for mid-sized firmsfloating rate: hedge or bear rate risk
investment-grade bondsTreasury + credit spread; fixedincurrence covenants, lightlarge, rated companiesrefinancing walls; ratings triggers
high-yield bonds / leveraged loansmuch wider spreadsincurrence covenants; loans often "cov-lite"LBOs, leveraged firmsexpensive; distress risk
convertible bondslow coupon + equity option given awayconversion ratio, call featureshigh-volatility growth firmsdilution if converted; cost is the option, not the coupon
leasesimplicit rate in paymentsasset-specific; under ASC 842 most leases go on the balance sheetequipment, propertya lease is debt: include it in leverage and WACC
asset-based lending / factoringspread over receivables or inventoryborrowing base, auditsinventory-heavy or receivables-heavy firmslender controls collateral
venture debtinterest plus warrantsoften minimum-cash or other covenants; lender may call on defaultVC-backed startups extending runway after a roundcovenants can bite before the next raise; see startup finance
common equitycost of equity; issue costs; dilutionnone, but governance rightsgrowth, deleveragingmost expensive capital; signals overvaluation
preferred equityfixed dividend or liquidation preferenceseniority, protective provisionsVC rounds, bank capital, rescue financingslayered preferences can crush common value

Debt is cheaper than equity on paper because of seniority and the tax shield, but every unit of debt raises the cost of equity (MM II) and the probability of distress. The question is never "which is cheaper" but "what mix maximizes firm value given our cash-flow risk".

Payout policy

MM irrelevance (Miller and Modigliani 1961): with investment fixed and no frictions, payout policy does not affect value. Shareholders can create "homemade dividends" by selling shares.

Worked, dividend vs buyback. Firm worth 1,000 (including 100 of excess cash), 100 shares at $10. Pay $1 a share dividend: price falls to $9, each holder has $9 + $1 = $10. Buy back 10 shares at $10: 90 shares worth 900, still $10 each. Same wealth either way, before frictions.

FrictionEffect
taxesUS qualified dividends and long-term gains share rates (0/15/20% plus 3.8% NIIT), but buybacks let holders choose when to realize gains and tax only the gain, not the whole payment
buyback excise tax1% of the fair market value of stock repurchased by US-listed corporations, net of stock issued in the same year, for repurchases after 31 December 2022 (IRC §4501, Inflation Reduction Act 2022; final regulations November 2025); de minimis $1 million. E.g. $200m of buybacks less $50m issued → $1.5m tax
signalingdividend increases are sticky commitments, so markets read them as confidence; cuts are punished
flexibilitybuybacks can be paused without the stigma of a dividend cut
clientelesincome-seeking or tax-exempt investors may prefer dividends
agencypaying out free cash flow stops managers wasting it (Jensen 1986)
EPS opticsbuybacks mechanically raise EPS when the earnings yield exceeds the after-tax return on cash, whether or not value is created

EPS optics worked. Net income 100, 100 shares, price $20 (P/E 20, earnings yield 5%). Spend 200 of cash earning 4% pre-tax (3.16% after tax) on 10 shares. Net income falls to 93.68, shares to 90: EPS rises from $1.00 to $1.041 (+4.1%). Share price stays $20: the firm lost 200 of cash and 10% of its shares. Higher EPS came with more leverage and risk, so the P/E drops. Judge a buyback by price paid versus intrinsic value, not by EPS.

Rules of thumb: pay out what you cannot invest above the cost of capital; use regular dividends for the part you are confident is permanent and buybacks for the variable part; buy back only when shares trade below intrinsic value.

Working capital management

Net working capital (operating) = receivables + inventory − payables (and other operating current items). Ratios and statement mechanics: financial statements.

DSO=ARRevenue×365,DIO=InventoryCOGS×365,DPO=APCOGS×365DSO = \frac{AR}{\text{Revenue}} \times 365, \quad DIO = \frac{\text{Inventory}}{\text{COGS}} \times 365, \quad DPO = \frac{AP}{\text{COGS}} \times 365 Operating cycle=DSO+DIO,Cash conversion cycle=DSO+DIO−DPO\text{Operating cycle} = DSO + DIO, \qquad \text{Cash conversion cycle} = DSO + DIO - DPO

Worked (USD thousands): revenue 12,000, COGS 7,200, receivables 1,500, inventory 1,200, payables 900. DSO 45.6 days, DIO 60.8, DPO 45.6: operating cycle 106.5 days, CCC 60.8 days. Cutting DSO by 10 days frees 12,000/365×10≈32912{,}000/365 \times 10 \approx 329; cutting DIO by 10 days frees about 197. Cash released from working capital is a one-off gain, but it is real cash at zero cost of capital.

LeverTacticTrade-off
receivablesinvoice immediately, shorter terms, card or direct debit, early-payment discountdiscount "2/10 net 30" costs the seller about 37% a year (simple; about 45% compounded); customers may walk
inventorydemand forecasting, fewer SKUs, just-in-time, vendor-managed stockstock-outs and supply-chain fragility (2021–22)
payablesnegotiate longer terms, pay on the due date not beforesqueezing suppliers raises prices or kills weak suppliers
modelupfront or annual prepaid billingnegative CCC: customers fund growth (common in subscription software and retailers with fast inventory turns)

Growth consumes working capital: a profitable firm growing fast with a long CCC can run out of cash. Forecast NWC as days of revenue or COGS, not as a plug.

Financial planning and forecasting

Percent-of-sales method. Items that scale with revenue (most operating assets, payables, accruals) are forecast as a percentage of sales; financing items are decided. The gap is additional funds needed:

AFN=A∗S0ΔS−L∗S0ΔS−m S1 (1−d)AFN = \frac{A^*}{S_0}\Delta S - \frac{L^*}{S_0}\Delta S - m\,S_1\,(1 - d)

where A∗A^* are assets tied to sales, L∗L^* spontaneous liabilities, mm net margin, dd payout ratio. Worked: sales 10,000 growing 20%, assets/sales 0.80, spontaneous liabilities/sales 0.15, margin 6%, payout 40%: 1,600−300−432=8681{,}600 - 300 - 432 = 868 of new external financing.

Sustainable growth rate: the fastest growth possible without new equity and with constant leverage, payout and asset turnover:

g∗=ROE×b(b=retention ratio);g∗=ROE×b1−ROE×b with beginning-of-year equityg^* = ROE \times b \quad (b = \text{retention ratio}); \qquad g^* = \frac{ROE \times b}{1 - ROE \times b} \text{ with beginning-of-year equity}

ROE 15% and retention 60% gives 9% (9.89% on the beginning-equity form). The internal growth rate (no external financing at all) uses ROA instead: 7.5% ROA and 60% retention → 4.71%. Growing faster than g∗g^* requires raising margins, turnover, leverage or retention, or issuing equity. DuPont: ROE=margin×turnover×equity multiplierROE = \text{margin} \times \text{turnover} \times \text{equity multiplier}.

Three-statement model outline:

  1. Drivers

    Revenue build (volume × price, or cohorts), gross margin, opex as % of revenue or headcount, capex, D&A, NWC days, tax rate, interest rate, payout.

  2. Income statement

    Revenue → EBITDA → EBIT → interest (on average debt) → tax → net income.

  3. Balance sheet

    PP&E roll-forward (opening + capex − D&A), NWC from days, equity roll-forward (opening + net income − dividends − buybacks + issuance), debt schedule.

  4. Cash flow statement

    Net income + D&A − ΔNWC − capex ± financing. Cash (or the revolver) is the balancing item.

  5. Check and stress

    Balance sheet balances every period; interest-on-average-debt circularity handled (iterative calc or opening balances); run downside cases against covenants and liquidity.

Risk management and hedging

Under MM, hedging should not add value: investors can diversify themselves. It does add value when it cuts expected distress costs, lets the firm fund its investment plan without costly external finance (Froot, Scharfstein and Stein 1993), reduces expected taxes when the tax schedule is convex, or improves managers' information by removing noise from results.

ExposureExampleInstrument
transaction FXexporter receiving €10m in 6 monthsforward, option, natural hedge (costs in euros)
translation FXforeign subsidiary's balance sheetborrow in local currency; often left unhedged
economic FXcompetitor's costs are in a weakening currencystrategic: move production, pricing
interest ratefloating-rate term loaninterest-rate swap (pay fixed, receive floating), cap
commodityairline fuel, food manufacturer's wheatfutures, swaps, options, fixed-price contracts
creditconcentrated customercredit insurance, letters of credit
InstrumentWhat it doesCost / risk
forwardOTC contract to buy or sell later at a price fixed todayno upfront cost; locks out upside; counterparty risk
futureexchange-traded, standardized forward, marked to market dailymargin calls drain cash before the hedged item pays
swapexchange one stream for another (fixed for floating, one currency for another)counterparty and basis risk
optionright, not obligation, to trade at a strikepay a premium; keeps upside

Covered interest parity sets the forward FX rate: F=S×1+rdomt1+rfortF = S \times \dfrac{1 + r_{\text{dom}} t}{1 + r_{\text{for}} t}. Illustrative (not market) numbers: spot 1.1700 USD per EUR, 6-month USD rate 4.2%, EUR rate 2.1% → forward 1.1822; the exporter locks in $11.82m for its €10m. Hedge committed or highly probable exposures; hedging more than the exposure is speculation. Metallgesellschaft (1993) is the classic warning: a rolling short-dated futures hedge on long-dated fixed-price supply contracts produced huge margin calls when oil prices fell, and the parent unwound the positions at a large loss.

Mergers and acquisitions

An acquisition is a capital-budgeting decision with a large, uncertain price:

NPVacquirer=(VAB−VA−VB)⏟synergies−(price paid−VB)⏟premium−deal costsNPV_{\text{acquirer}} = \underbrace{(V_{AB} - V_A - V_B)}_{\text{synergies}} - \underbrace{(\text{price paid} - V_B)}_{\text{premium}} - \text{deal costs}
MotiveSound?
cost synergies (overlap, procurement, scale)often real; usually easier to deliver than revenue synergies
revenue synergies (cross-sell, distribution)frequently overestimated
replacing bad management (control premium)real when the target is badly run
tax, unused tax losses, cheaper financingsometimes; scrutinise
diversificationshareholders can diversify more cheaply themselves
EPS accretionnot a source of value (see below)
empire building, hubris (Roll 1986)the source of many bad deals

Accretion and dilution

Acquirer: net income $500m, 250m shares (EPS $2.00), price $40 (P/E 20). Target: net income $60m, market value $960m (P/E 16); acquirer pays a 25% premium, $1,200m (P/E 20 on the price paid). Tax 21%.

StructureCombined net incomeSharesEPSvs $2.00
all stock (30m new shares at $40)560.0280$2.0000.0%
all debt at 6% (after-tax interest 56.9)503.1250$2.013+0.6%
stock + $40m pre-tax synergies591.6280$2.113+5.6%
debt + $40m pre-tax synergies534.7250$2.139+6.9%
  • A stock deal is accretive when the acquirer's P/E exceeds the P/E paid; a debt deal when the target's earnings yield at the price paid (5.0%) exceeds the after-tax cost of debt (4.74%).
  • The debt deal with no synergies is accretive yet destroys $240m (the premium, before deal costs; any tax shield on the new debt was available without buying anything). EPS says nothing about whether the premium was earned.
  • With $40m a year of pre-tax synergies (31.6 after tax, perpetual, discounted at 9%), synergies are worth $351m against a $240m premium: NPV about +$111m. Break-even synergies are about $27m a year pre-tax.

Evidence

  • Andrade, Mitchell and Stafford (2001), US mergers 1973–1998: announcement returns averaged about +16% for targets, −0.7% for acquirers and +1.8% combined. Mergers create some value on average, but the target's shareholders capture nearly all of it.
  • Moeller, Schlingemann and Stulz (2005): acquiring-firm shareholders lost about 12 cents per dollar spent at announcement, a total of $240 billion from 1998 to 2001, against $7 billion in all of the 1980s. The losses were concentrated in a small number of very large deals by highly valued acquirers.
  • So "most acquisitions destroy value" is too strong as a universal claim; "the average acquirer earns roughly nothing, and large, richly valued, stock-financed acquirers in hot markets have done worst" is what the evidence supports. AOL–Time Warner is the canonical example (see valuation).

Negotiation and bidding dynamics (winner's curse, auction design) are in game theory.

Corporate governance

Governance is the set of mechanisms that make managers act for owners: the answer to Jensen and Meckling's agency problem.

MechanismHow it worksWeakness
board of directorshires, pays, fires the CEO; approves major capital decisionscaptured by the CEO; part-time, information-poor
executive payequity and performance-linked pay align incentivesrewards luck; EPS and TSR targets invite manipulation and buybacks
shareholder voting and activismproxy fights, say on pay, activist hedge fundsshort horizons; passive funds vote but rarely engage deeply
market for corporate controltakeovers replace poor managersanti-takeover defenses (poison pills, staggered boards)
debt and covenantsfixed claims force disciplinecan induce underinvestment
disclosure and auditSEC reporting, independent auditors, Sarbanes–Oxley internal controlsEnron and Wirecard show auditors can miss fraud
dual-class sharesfounders keep control while raising capitalinsulates managers from accountability

For startups, governance lives in the board composition and protective provisions negotiated in each round (see startup finance).

Templates and checklists

Capital-budgeting template

PROJECT: ____________________   Owner: ________   Date: ______
Decision: accept / reject / defer    Alternatives considered: ___
 
1. Incremental cash flows (with project minus without)
   Revenue drivers (volume x price):        ________________
   Variable cost / unit; fixed cash costs:   ________________
   Opportunity costs (assets used):          ________________
   Side effects (cannibalisation, spillover):________________
   EXCLUDED: sunk costs ____  unchanged overhead ____  interest
   Capex schedule and useful life:           ________________
   Depreciation method (tax) and shield:     ________________
   NWC (days of revenue/COGS), recovery:     ________________
   Salvage value and tax on gain:            ________________
   Tax rate (marginal):                      ________________
 
2. Discount rate
   Comparable pure-play betas (unlevered):   ________________
   Relevered beta at target D/E:             ________________
   Rf ____ (date ____)  ERP ____ (source/date ____)
   Project WACC:                             ________________
 
3. Results
   NPV ____   IRR ____   MIRR ____   PI ____   Disc. payback ____
   % of PV from final year / terminal value: ____
 
4. Risk
   Tornado: top 3 variables and NPV swing:   ________________
   Bear / base / bull NPV and weights:       ________________
   NPV break-even (units, price):            ________________
   Real options (expand / abandon / delay):  ________________
 
5. Post-investment review date and KPIs:     ________________

CFO questions checklist

[ ] Does every project's NPV rest on cash flows, not profit?
[ ] Are sunk costs excluded and opportunity costs included?
[ ] Is interest excluded from cash flows (it is in WACC)?
[ ] Is the discount rate specific to the project's risk?
[ ] Rf and ERP from the same date, and is the date stated?
[ ] Nominal flows with nominal rate, after-tax with after-tax?
[ ] Do we rank mutually exclusive projects by NPV, not IRR?
[ ] What single variable turns NPV negative, and how likely?
[ ] Is leverage within rating and covenant headroom in a downturn?
[ ] Could we fund the plan for 12-24 months without new equity?
[ ] Are payouts funded by free cash flow, not new borrowing?
[ ] Are buybacks done below intrinsic value, not to hit EPS?
[ ] What is our cash conversion cycle, and its trend?
[ ] Which FX, rate and commodity exposures are hedged, and why?
[ ] For each acquisition: synergies PV vs premium, not EPS?
[ ] Who reviews the outcome of past capital decisions?
[ ] Do incentive plans reward value created or EPS/growth?

References